Author(s)

D. E Reeve, M. Spivack

Abstract

Stochastic prediction of long-term coastal evolution D.E. Reeve* & M. Spivack^ * Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham, UK ^Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK Abstract Strategic planning for the management of our coasts relies implicitly upon an understanding of the physical processes responsible for shaping coastal morphology. Morphodynamic models can play a key role in assessing the likely impact of coastal developments. Predictive models used in current practice are usually employed in a deterministic fashion and do not forecast accurately the variability likely to be experienced in real situations. In this paper we describe the results of collaborative research between the Universities of Nottingham and Cambridge that investigates the use of stochastic techniques to the problem of predicting future coastline evolution. In particular, we present the formulation of stochastic equations for the position of the

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