Author(s)

J. Soares & J. Acosta-Chang

Abstract

Microzonation maps of the soil’s seismic response for the city of Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico were obtained by means of predictive empirical equations for the region. By applying damage probability matrices, the expected damage on the critical facilities of the city was estimated. The maps were elaborated considering a scenario of earthquake occurrence. A MM = 6.8 earthquake was proposed to occur in the southern portion of the San Miguel fault. The expected ground motion for the San Miguel earthquake in the downtown area would reach maximum accelerations of 135 cm/s 2 , a maximum velocity of 9 cm/s, and an intensity of VII in the Modified Mercalli scale (MMI). Critical structures and strategic buildings of significant importance for the city were catalogued, and by applying the method of Damage Probability Matrices (DPM), the expected damage on these structures was estimated. Keywords: seismic microzonation, Ensenada, earthquakes, seismic scenarios. 1 Introduction Industrial countries have been successful in reducing their seismic risk, whereas undeveloped countries such as Nicaragua, Guatemala, and El Salvador, earthquakes have been responsible for losses up to 40% of the natural gross product (Geohazards International, [1]). The adequate planning and preparedness for emergencies allow the impacted area to reduce its risks and damages.

Keywords

seismic microzonation, Ensenada, earthquakes, seismic scenarios.