Author(s)

W.E. Rice

Abstract

A model of selected ridership forecasting techniques with a limited database - a case study the central coast diegan W.E. Rice College of Business, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, California 93407, USA Email: wrice@calpoly. edu Abstract Central to the authorization of an urban transport project is the development of a credible projection of ridership. Statistical databases are often either lacking or questionable. This paper examines the techniques employed in such an environment by detailing the methodology used to forecast ridership for an extension of passenger train service to San Luis Obispo, California, in the San Diego/Los Angeles urban corridor. Many arguments implied a strong latent demand for this service. Ridership projections were constructed to evaluate the feasibility of different service levels. The statistical analysis was predicated on historical passenger rail traffic patterns, origin/destination surveys and the assumption that ridership is p

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