Author(s)

MASSIMO GUARASCIO, ANGELO LIBERTÀ, DAVIDE BERARDI, EMIN ALAKBARLI, MARA LOMBARDI

Abstract

The Italian legislation requires determining the project seismic actions and to carry out the dynamic stability verification of the structural elements of a building or road infrastructure on the base of the seismic hazard curve of the construction site. The geographic density of the available seismic data requires the best use of existing data and above all not introducing phenomenological assumptions and unverified information into the survey. This article proposes an investigation protocol that integrates the multivariate statistical analysis methodologies already used to determine the seismic shaking attenuation with more efficient and versatile geostatistical methodologies for a more realistic estimate of non-stationary parameters. The application of the new investigation protocol to the earthquakes that occurred in Italy in 2016 made it possible to detect and resolve three fundamental aspects of seismic modeling: (i) the recorded data highlight the presence of a directional anisotropy of the arrival time and the value of the acceleration peak on the ground which led to the introduction of a non-Euclidean metric in seismic modeling; (ii) the presence and measurement of the geographical continuity of the irregular variations between data pairs attributable to the heterogeneity of the rock formations and outcropping soils; (iii) the need for an experimental measure of the estimate uncertainty for an objective evaluation of the applied numerical estimator. This last result made it possible to evaluate the gain in terms of accuracy of the estimate performed with the local geostatistical estimator. The article presents the estimate of the arrival time and the peak value of the vertical (PGAv) and maximum horizontal (PGAh) component of the acceleration of the vibrational movements of the rock around the San Benedetto tunnel during the Norcia earthquake. The maximum estimated values of PGAv and PGAh are around the section of the tunnel damaged by the earthquake.

Keywords

earthquake, geostatistics, Universal CoKriging, seismic first-guess, risk, analysis, road tunnel, seismicity