Author(s)

ALEXEY Y. DOMNIKOV, MICHAEL KHODOROVSKY, LIUDMILA DOMNIKOVA

Abstract

The reliable operation of power cogeneration systems as the most important component of large power systems is essential for national economy’s successful development. The timeliness of studying the effective administrative actions to increase the economic effect for energy companies and maintain a high level of readiness of energy systems for overcoming the threats to their sustainable operation, that appear in conditions of high economic risks, is preconditioned by the presence of not only technical but also economic aspects of energy supply reliability. The structural complexity of the regional power cogeneration systems as well as availability of various interrelations between power stations and their performance characteristics lead to the development of accidents and their turning into system ones. This circumstance puts among the most urgent the requirement of a specific study of the problem of reliability analysis of the region’s territories’ energy supply. In the course of research, the structural systematic characteristics of power cogeneration systems and conditions contributing to appearance of system accidents leading to the loss of sustainability were taken into account. A method of indicative analysis was applied for studying the issues related to reliability and survivability of energy supply systems. Its specificity was an original methodological approach to calculation of indicators threshold values characterizing the state of energy cogeneration systems in terms of energy supply reliability based on discriminatory analysis. It allowed conducting a series of simulation calculations by indicative blocks of a situation belonging to a certain class of states and obtaining generalized assessments characterizing the reliability level of energy cogeneration systems on the territories of the regions.

Keywords

power industry, efficiency, strategy, reliability, ecology, mathematical economic models, uncertainty