Author(s)

L. Gucma

Abstract

This paper presents a new probabilistic method of navigational risk assessment. The method is based on real time simulation results. It is a complex method which consists of three separate methods: real time ship manoeuvring simulations, Monte Carlo method and analytical model of accident consequences. It allows for extending the simulation results over the waterway lifetime and all possible meteorological conditions. The main advantage over the fast time simulations is elimination of inaccurate human navigator models. The navigator behaviour is propagated to this method by means of several statistical distributions. 1 Introduction The growing complexity in today’s navigational safety research sets strong demands to the scientists. The real time simulation method, assumed as the most advanced and accurate method nowadays [2], is not sufficient in several aspects of risk analysis, especially in extending the researches for longer time period and the detailed consequences analysis. The paper presents new method which is based on real time simulation and extends the results achieved in real time simulation into the future. Two approaches are used. The first of them based on Fourier transformations was originally proposed by Quy et al [4] and the second one based on a pure probabilistic approach is used by the author [1, 3]. The detailed research procedure is presented on Figure 1. The first stage – real time simulations are used to determine the probability density functions of ship position during passage along the analysed waterway and the distributions

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