Author(s)

H.W. van den Brink, G.P. Können & J.D. Opsteegh

Abstract

The reliability of extreme surge levels, estimated from observational records over 100 years H.W. van den Brink, G.P. Konnen & J.D. Opsteegh Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, The Netherlands Abstract Ensemble simulations with a total length of 5336 years were generated with the KNMI General Circulation Model ECBilt, coupled with a simple surge model to transform the wind field over the North Sea to the surge level at Delfzijl (NL). The resulting skew surges were analysed with the Generalized Extreme Value distribution to study the uncertainty in surge level estimates with a return period of lo4 years, as derived from observational records of order hundred years. The 46 estimated surge levels with a return period of lo4 years, calculated from sets of 116 year each, vary between 4.5 and 17 meters, with a median of 8.5 meter. The 1 0 ~ - ~ e a r estimate of the 118-year observational Delfzijl record (5.8 meter) fits well among these subsets, but this surge level is considerably lower t

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