Author(s)

J Yuan, R M P Goverde & I A Hansen

Abstract

Train delays are daily practice. Moreover, propagation of delays is a main source for delays experienced by the Dutch Railways. A statistical analysis shows that the mean train delay increases 15 to 45 seconds for most train lines at The Hague HS station, the Netherlands. Late arrival delays and corresponding dwell delays can generally be fitted to an exponential distribution and a normal distribution, respectively. A stochastic model is presented that forecasts the distribution of departure delays of late trains based on the distributions of late arrival delays and dwell delays. The model incorporates some main constraints of train operations. The model is solved by the Monte Carlo sampling approach. Model validation shows that the model predicts the propagation of train delays reasonably well in railway stations.

Keywords