Bayesian Strategies For The Reliability Assessment Of Heritage Structures
Price
Free (open access)
Transaction
Volume
153
Pages
12
Page Range
221 - 232
Published
2015
Size
466 kb
Paper DOI
10.2495/STR150191
Copyright
WIT Press
Author(s)
P. Croce, F. Marsili
Abstract
The reliability assessment of heritage structures is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. Probabilistic methods and Bayesian updating techniques are often combined to obtain realistic estimates, also aiming to target the best the possible interventions. Moreover, several factors often contribute to complicating the probabilistic approach, including uncertainties about the knowledge of the mechanical properties of materials, due to a lack of quantitative data from the structure. In this paper, a strategy to perform Bayesian updating used in assessing heritage structures, based on qualitative a posteriori judgment, is proposed, where the probability distribution function for the material properties are updated on the basis of the information available on similar structures. A case study concerning a relevant historical building is also presented.
Keywords
heritage structures, reliability assessment, Bayesian analysis