Author(s)

C. Cherubini, C. I. Glasi & P. Masi

Abstract

Probabilistic and fuzzy reliability analysis of a slope in Aliano (Basilicata, Italy) C. Cherubini1, C. I. Glasi1 & P. Masi2 1 Department of Civil and Environmental engineering, Technical University of Bari, Italy 2 Geotechnical Engineer (Italy) Abstract Stability assessment is a geotechnical problem characterized by many sources of uncertainties. Some of them are the variability and the uncertainties in soil parameters determination. Coming from a correct geotechnical site characterization, only a complete approach to the subject lead to perform a significant stability analysis. The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate how to correctly model data uncertainty in order to perform stability analysis with a good significance degree. Once determined input data, a probabilistic stability assessment (FOSM and Monte Carlo analysis) is performed to obtain the variation of failure probability with correlation coefficient between soil parameters varying. A first result is the demonstration of stability of FOSM (normal and lognormal distributions) and MC solutions, coming from a correct uncertainty modelling. Secondary the paper presents a simple algorithm (FFOSM), which use a fuzzy based analysis applied to data processing. 1 Introduction Stability assessment is a difficult geotechnical problem thanks to many uncertainties. Some of them are connected to variability and soil parameters evaluation. In literature there is a collection of probabilistic methods - some of which below reported - for uncertainty modelling, but few practice-oriented studies. So it seems difficult to apply those Reliability Index and Probability of Failure solutions to real cases, owing, for example, to the difference between soil

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