Author(s)

K. Blennow & O. Sallnäs

Abstract

Role of computer tools in risk management - applications in forestry K. Blennow & O.Sallnas Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden. Abstract Risk management is about handling uncertainty. Decisions are always preceded by assessments of outcome and analyses of risk. For complex systems, such as the forestry system, it may be difficult to make reliable assessments of outcome in ones head. This is where computer tools could provide useful information. In this paper, the Gardenfors & Sahlin decision theory is used as an analytical framework for describing non-industrial private forest owner’s perception of risk and identifying hazards for which decision support is needed. A system of models for calculating the probability of windthrow in forestry is used as an example of a computer tool that could provide useful decision support to forest owners if the results are communicated wisely. 1 Introduction Risk management is about handling uncertainty. In a decision situation, the decision maker chooses between different alternatives. The choice is made after making a risk analysis. To make a risk analysis, assessments of outcome are required for each alternative in the decision situation. In a complex system, such as the forestry system, it may be difficult to make such assessments. This is where computer models could provide decision makers with more reliable assessments than can be made without the models. This paper presents the role of computer tools for risk management in forestry.

Keywords