Author(s)

J. Augutis, J. Simaityte Volskiene & E. Uspuras & J. Kriauciuniene

Abstract

This paper presents risk analysis of the two biggest hydrological objects in Lithuania – Kaunas Hydropower Plant (KHP) and Kruonis Hydro Pump Storage Plant (KHPS), which comprise Kaunas hydropower system (KHS). Kaunas HP risk analysis was performed and the impact on it of the Kruonis HPS upper artificial reservoir crash during the floods period was analysed. Also the Kaunas dam overtopping probability and consequences of dam failure evaluation in terms of Kaunas city flooding zone mapping were evaluated. For the Kaunas dam probabilistic safety analysis the fault and event tree structures were used and dam overtopping probabilities under several scenarios were evaluated. For the calculated results sensitivity analysis was performed. The analysis results were used to specify the evacuation plans in the case of a catastrophe. Keywords: hydropower system, artificial reservoir, fault and event trees, flooding zones, consequences. 1 Introduction According to the world’s summarized statistics [2], 34% of dam break causes is overtopping and 30% instability of foundation. This confirms that dam failures can occur because of their inability to safely pass flood flows. The hazard can be even more important in the case of an upstream dam break. In Lithuania there are two large hydrological objects where such a hazard has to be investigated and evaluated, more over they depend on the one system. The purpose of the work is to perform risk analysis for the Kaunas hydropower system, which consists of the Kaunas Hydropower Plant and

Keywords

hydropower system, artificial reservoir, fault and event trees, flooding zones, consequences.