Author(s)

L. Gucma

Abstract

This paper presents the concept of a general model of ship risk in restricted areas. The paper is focused on the probabilistic side of risk assessment, without complete consequence analysis. Two prevailing kinds of accidents are included in the model. The main problem described in the paper is in the treatment of ships behaviour on restricted areas as a stochastic process. The necessary data for building such general models can be obtained from real experiments or simulation experiments like those presented in this paper. Several methods of accident modelling are proposed, especially for accidents of exiting safety horizontal borders of a waterway. The general models of risk can be used in risk assessment methods, decision support systems and safety evaluation of marine systems. 1 Introduction The ships passage through the approach channels, waterways, and port basins can be considered as a stochastic process with changing probability and the consequence of an accident. The main aim of this paper is to build a general safety model of ship passage through restricted water areas. This model takes into account two prevailing kinds of accidents with the use of different accident probability distributions and the time of the ships performing a given maneuver. These kinds of accident are: − accidents when a ship exceeds the horizontal boundaries of manoeuvring area such as grounding in channel, collision with embankments or breakwater, collision with moored ships or quay etc. − accidents when a ship hits the bottom due to insufficient clearance under the ship’s hull (exceeding the available water depth).

Keywords