Author(s)

TOSHIHIRO OSARAGI, TAKESHI INOUE

Abstract

In the field of urban planning, building lots constitute a crucial area of study due to their role as the fundamental unit of land use. Consolidation of lots is advocated from the perspectives of environmental planning and disaster prevention, particularly in established urban areas of Japan where fragmentation of standard lots is prevalent. This study develops a stochastic model to depict the likelihood and probability of lot consolidation into larger spatial units. The model’s unknown parameters are calibrated using GIS data provided by a local government ward in Tokyo, Japan. The analysis reveals that the probability of lot consolidation hinges primarily on relationships with neighbouring lots, geographic location and intrinsic lot characteristics. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of lot consolidation probability is visualised based on the estimated model.

Keywords

building lot consolidation, random utility theory, property of lot, property of place