Author(s)

JAAP M. VLEUGEL, FRANS BAL

Abstract

Densely populated areas are major sources of air, soil and water pollution. Agriculture, manufacturing, consumer households and road traffic all have their share. This is particularly true for the country featured in this paper: the Netherlands. Continuous pollution of the air and soil manifests itself as acification, decalcification and eutrofication. Biodiversity becomes lower and lower in nature areas. Biological farms are also under threat. In case of mobility, local air pollution may have a huge health impact. Effective policy is called for, after high courts blocked construction projects, because of foreseen building- and transport-related NO_x emissions. EU law makers are after Dutch governments, because these favoured economics and politics over environmental and liveability concerns. But, people in the Netherlands are strongly divided. The latest provincial elections were dominated by environmental concerns, next to many socio-economic issues. NO_x and CO₂ emissions by passenger cars are in focus. Technical means and increasing fuel economy norms strongly reduced NO_x emissions to a still too high level. A larger number of cars neutralized a technological reduction of CO₂ emissions. The question is: What would be the impact of a drastic mandatory reduction in CO₂, NO_x, and PM10 emissions on car ownership and use in the Netherlands? The authors used literature, scenario analysis and simulation modelling to answer this question. Electric mobility could remove these emissions. Its full impact will only be achieved if the grid-mix, which is still dominated by fossil fuels, becomes green(er), which is a gradual, long-term, process. EVs compete with other consumers of electricity, as many other activities, such as heating, are also electrifying. With the current grid-mix, it is inevitable that the number of km per vehicle per year is reduced to reach the scenario targets (−25% resp. −50% CO₂ emissions by cars). This calls for an individual mobility budget per car user.

Keywords

climate change, CO₂ emissions, fuel efficiency, electric vehicles, behaviour, policymaking