Author(s)

OSCAR CRUZ-CASTRO, EDITH MONTESINOS-PEDRO, NORBERTO DOMÍNGUEZ-RAMÍREZ

Abstract

The foundation for a fruitful prevention policy should be a probabilistic study of the natural phenomenon occurrence, along with an estimate of the short- and long-term damages it could cause. This probabilistic study can be used to provide the relevant authorities with the necessary data to define possible risk scenarios and, at the same time, allow a sustainable territorial planning. Peñón de los Baños is in the borough of Venustiano Carranza. It has a perimeter of 6,180 m (20,275 ft) and an area of 1.59 km² (392.9 acres). It is a zone where ponding often occurs during wet season on a yearly basis. However, this problem has not been mitigated despite its recurrence. The purpose of this paper is to show the results of a numerical simulation model, by referencing a collaborative flood risk map made by the community and the academy. From an engineering point of view, efforts were made to make a numerical simulation model that could be used to support flood predictions as per data provided by the population (streets where water is perceived to run and ponding zones). Iber is a two-dimensional mathematical model for the simulation of flows in rivers and estuaries, it is promoted by the Center for Hydrographic Studies of CEDEX, and it was used to get scenarios and to be able to prevent floods. The coincidence of routes (streets where water runs) and flooding zones, as provided by the community, could be contrasted with the results of the numerical model to provide feedback and possible solutions that would mitigate this problem.

Keywords

risk, flood, models, Iber, community