Author(s)

RAFAEL A. O. NUNES, MARIA C. M. ALVIM-FERRAZ, FERNANDO G. MARTINS, JUKKA-PEKKA JALKANEN, HANNA HANNUNIEMI, SOFIA I. V. SOUSA

Abstract

Air pollution is the leading cause of the global burden of disease from the environment, entailing substantial economic consequences. International shipping is a significant source of NO_x, SO₂, CO and PM, which contributes to the increase in O₃ levels that can cause known negative health impacts. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the health impacts of ozone ship-related air pollution in Portugal in 2015. To determine the health-related effects of this sector, shipping emissions were obtained from an Automatic Identification System based emission inventory using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). Their contributions to SOMO35 (sum of ozone daily 8-h maximum means over 35 ppb in the calendar year, expressed in ppb per day) levels in Portugal were modelled using the EMEP/MSC-W chemistry transport model (simulations with and without shipping emissions). Log-linear functions based on WHO-HRAPIE relative risks for each health endpoint (all-cause and respiratory mortality, and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions) were used to estimate the attributable fractions. Then, the excess burden of disease was calculated by multiplying the attributable fractions with the baseline incidence of each health endpoint and the population at LAU2 level. Costs associated with the health impacts were estimated as the product of the excess burden of disease and its unit health cost value. Shipping emissions contributed to an increase of 21% in the number of deaths for all-cause mortality and respiratory diseases, as well as hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. A total external cost of around 180 (86–266) M€ a yr^-1 was estimated for these health endpoints in 2015. These results show that O₃-related air pollution from ships is a considerable problem affecting the Portuguese population.

Keywords

shipping emissions, modelling, air pollution, impact pathway approach, health effects