Author(s)

R. R. Mwaipungu, D. Allopi

Abstract

Pavement distress prediction models (PDPM) are normally sought as one of the tools in pavement management systems (PMS). These tools attempt in line with modelling method deployed to capture the progressive nature of pavement surfacing layers’ distress as dependent parameter versus causative parameters which serve as independent parameters.

The process of formulating PDPM faces a number of challenges which affects its accuracy in prediction of future state of distresses in question, and hence its effectiveness as a tool for managing road pavements. The list of challenges to overcome is long, but can be categorised in terms of behaviour and characteristics of independent and dependent variables.

Based on the study carried out in Iringa region, Tanzania, the paper looks at challenges noted in an attempt to answer questions such as which variables stand out as most appropriate in reflecting the dynamic nature of pavement distresses so as to serve as dependent or independent variables. Answers provided may serve to improve the formulating process and reliability of PDPM.

Keywords

pavement distress prediction models, variables, dependent and independent parameters, gravel loss, trend, maintenance, pavement management system