Author(s)

N. Didenko, D. Skripnuk, K. Kikkas, O. Seeleva

Abstract

The paper describes a model of six econometric equations, which is used for the analysis of development sustainability of Chukotka autonomous district – one of the Russian Arctic regions. The paper analyzes the following spheres of human activities within the region: the social sphere, the industrial sphere and the environmental sphere. Each sphere is evaluated with indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development are analyzed and the definition of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the arctic region is given. Under sustainable development of the arctic region one should understand such dynamics of the development indicators of various spheres of human activity in the region that show growth of the human development potential. The human development potential can be estimated with the human development index (HDI). The paper includes methodological principles of creation of the model of six econometric equations for the analysis of development sustainability of the region. Each equation is an ADL-model, because the ADL-model allows for estimation of dependencies of different indicators of human activity on the current and past time series of other indicators. The endogenous and exogenous variables of the model were chosen. The algorithm of model parameters calculating is being discussed. The coefficients of the six econometric equations are calculated on the data of Chukotka autonomous district. The analysis of the results is presented. The methodological principles of model creation and the solving results can be used while working out the sustainable development strategy for municipality, or single arctic region, or even all the Russian arctic regions.

Keywords

sustainable development, econometric equations model, ADL-model, Arctic region