Author(s)

P. I. Ater & G. C. Aye

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic impact of climate change on Nigeria’s maize sector using a Ricardian approach. Data was collected on temperature, precipitation, soil, maize revenue, socioeconomic characteristics and adaptation strategies to varying climate factors. The study reveals that net maize revenue per hectare is sensitive to climate change. The impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models (CGM2, HADCM3 and PCM) indicated that there would be an increasing reduction in maize net revenue per hectare over the forecast period unless appropriate mitigation responses are adopted. Further, impact of climate change is not uniformly distributed across the different agroecological zones. Keywords: climate change, temperature, precipitation, maize, Nigeria, Ricardian analysis. 1 Introduction There is a growing consensus that the world is warming and will continue to warm as the concentration of greenhouse gases rise in the future (IPCC [1]). Although agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change, country and crop specific impacts are limited. This paper examines the climate sensitivity of agricultural production in Nigeria. Agriculture plays a cardinal role in Nigeria’s economy contributing the greatest share (40.9%) to the nation’s real gross domestic production in 2010 (CBN [2]). Further, agriculture generates employment for over 70 percent of the total labour force, accounts for about 60 percent of the non-oil exports and provides over 80

Keywords

climate change, temperature, precipitation, maize, Nigeria,Ricardian analysis.