Author(s)

J. Augutis, E. Ušpuras & V. Matuzienė

Abstract

Energy supply in Lithuania will be particularly vulnerable after the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown at the end of 2009, when a new power plant is designed. Presently, gas supply is expensive and unreliable, and electricity connections with western countries have not been built. Technical, economical, social political and terrorist disturbances will become very important, as well as the ability of the Lithuanian energy sector to overcome these obstacles and the consequences which are important to foresee for decision makers. In this paper a methodology is presented to assess an energy security level, the assumptions taken into account, data collected for the model, and prior economical analysis results are shown. The model is in the building stage. It will be created for the assessment of the risks using probabilistic safety analysis on the SES RISK framework. The real composition of Lithuanian energy supply (energy sources, networks) is reflected in the model, possible initiating events are taken into account, and their probabilities are determined by expert methods or modelled using an economical model. Keywords: Lithuanian energy supply, energy supply assessment.

Keywords

Lithuanian energy supply, energy supply assessment