Author(s)

A. Bustani & E. Cobas

Abstract

The impact of fuel substitution policies on air pollutants emissions in Mexico A. Bustani, E. Cobas Centra de Calidad Ambiental, ITESM Campus Monterrey, Sucursal de Correos 'J', Monterrey N.L. 64849, Mexico ABSTRACT The paper presents an analysis of the impact that several policies have had on air pollutants emissions in Mexico. These include an analysis of the substitution of natural gas by heavy residual oil in combustion process in the early 1980's and the substitution of leaded to unleaded gasoline in the 1990's. Several substitution scenarios for the State of Nuevo Leon are proposed to reduce the amount of pollutants emitted in the next 10 years using for this statistical models to calculate the trend, ciclicity, and seasonal variation for the last 20 years. According to this study, if the present substitution rate of heavy residual oil to natural gas is maintained it will take at least 8 years to reduce 35% of the air pollutants emission. On the other

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