Author(s)

J. PERDIKARIS, B. GHARABAGHI & E. MCBEAN

Abstract

Many factors contribute to a communities’ vulnerability with respect to flooding, including its population, built environment, and concentration of wealth in a small number of highly vulnerable areas that are susceptible to flooding. This paper presents a planning and risk management tool for assessing the vulnerability of communities to flooding, using a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation techniques and multi-criteria analysis. This process has been applied to the Credit River watershed, in Ontario, Canada, to assess the vulnerability of the 22 flood damage centres within the watershed. These flood damage centres have been previously identified in the Canada-Ontario Flood Damage Reduction Program Study (1985). A vulnerability characterization of the Credit River watershed was undertaken in 2007, this work builds upon the previous study. The indices developed in this study provide a quantitative measure of the vulnerability for each of the 22 flood damage centres, and they are also used to estimate the total expected annual direct and indirect damage costs for each of the flood damage centres. The indices are also a useful tool for stakeholder consultation and communication, and can be used for water resources, landuse and emergency planning within the watershed.

Keywords

damages, flooding, Monte-Carlo, simulation, vulnerability.