Author(s)

I.M. Schoeman

Abstract

Dynamic systems are characterize by a collection of variables and their interrelationships over time. Hence, a dynamic system refers to anything that evolves or changes over time like your bank account or a countries economic growth. Resilience is the ability of a dynamic system to return to a steady state or stable periodic orbit after a (not to big) disturbance and therefore the systems behaviour will be stable or marginally stable. Resilience behaviour of the system strives to minimize regret and mitigate risk by being a stable or marginally stable system. in mathematical terms this definition of resilience refer to convergence, for all starting values near the equilibrium (or small disturbance to the equilibrium) the system will not move away from the/a equilibrium, i.e. a stable (steady state) system or the stable periodic orbit. hence the system will oscillate between a finite number of points on the long term.

To achieve sustainability within a system (e.g. transportation networks, etc.), the way of thinking, planning, project design and implementation needs to be resilient in order to contribute to the system wide sustainability. It thus implies a need for quantitative data and information to optimise planning and to support decision making in an adaptive fashion. Through being able to describe how the system evolves over time, it enable ways to define preconditions or input that will ensure a dynamic system remain stable to promote resilience and sustainability. At present, theory and practices do not make provision for the development of improved adaptive capacities in all phases of planning through dynamic transportation systems planning and development.

The aim of this paper is to introduce and develop resilience-orientated frameworks and approaches based on application of mathematical, statistical and decision-making tools, which can be used to enhance the interface between resilience and sustainability alignment though dynamic thinking, planning and implementation in transportation systems. in the end, this will lead to improved management and sustainable transport planning.

Keywords

adaptive capacity and decision making, dynamic planning, dynamic transportation systems, resilience, sustainability.