Author(s)

HASHIM M.N. AL-MADANI

Abstract

Over three decades, vehicular and fatality related data are analysed and modelled for the Arab world and compared with 27 EU countries. The data comparison and modelling include vehicle development, death frequencies and death rates per inhabitants and vehicles. The modelling is based on least-squares regression fit  considering around two-third of a million gathered data points for 45 considered countries. The gathered Arab countries’ data, as a whole, are thought to be presented for the first time; since no such data are yet observed in the literature. It is expected that an extra 117 million vehicles will be pumped into the global road network in a decade time from the earlier two regions. This sums to around 15% of the current global vehicle population. While such an increase looks very encouraging for the vehicles’ manufacturers, its environmental consequences and power consumption needs are surely not. While crash deaths in EU countries dropped from 74,876 during 1980 to 30,170 during 2011, that in the Arab countries increased from 22,145 victims to 37,736. The death record in the Arab countries is expected to further escalate to 54 thousand by the year 2022 based on mathematical models developed here. This represents around 45% increase since 2011. That for 27 EU countries is expected to be within 10 and 20 thousand deaths, which is less than half of the 2011 record. The crash death rates in the EU countries decreased continuously during the past three decades and will continue doing so during the coming decade. That in the Arab world will also continue dropping gently during the coming decade. Currently, the overall rates for the EU countries is half that of the average Arab countries. The gap between the two will increase with the time if no proper counter action is considered. The rates in the Arab countries is quite misleading because of the clear difference in the vehicle ownership rate and average vehicle-miles travelled between Arab and EU countries. While the deaths rates per population in the 15 EU countries are heading towards zero in a decade time; the rate in the Arab countries are expected to increase by 16%. Many factors contribute to such high rates of traffic deaths in the Arab countries, as lack of measurable long-term safety plans, inconsistent handling of traffic safety strategies, poor research involvement and limited post-accident rehabilitation centres.

Keywords

Arab countries, crash death, death per vehicle, EU, fatality per population, roadway fatalities, traffic safety.